Supply Chain Resilience Model
An illustrative ONEMODEL application for tracing disruptions through suppliers, producers, inventories, logistics networks, infrastructure, workers, customers, prices, and recovery decisions.
Move from a forecast to a system experiment.
Each scenario changes conditions inside the same governed model, so the consequences can propagate through behaviour, capacity, prices, institutions, and time.
What happens if a major port closes for four weeks?
Follow inventory depletion, rerouting, supplier failure, production delays, price changes, employment effects, and the shape of recovery.
How much resilience is gained by dual sourcing or strategic inventory?
Compare added carrying/procurement cost against reduced outage risk, lost production, and downstream customer impacts.
Which industries or regions are most exposed to a critical-input shortage?
Trace network dependencies and substitution limits rather than applying one average multiplier to every firm.
What the digital twin needs to represent.
The exact model can vary by project, but the value comes from keeping the important actors, state, constraints, and causal pathways inside one coherent simulation.
Network structure
Resilience depends on who buys from whom and what can substitute.
- Supplier tiers Direct and upstream dependencies, concentration, and critical inputs.
- Substitution Alternative suppliers, materials, routes, and production processes.
- Geography Ports, corridors, regions, borders, and local concentrations.
Operating state
Short-run outcomes depend heavily on inventories and capacity.
- Inventories Days of supply, safety stock, reorder behaviour, and perishability.
- Capacity Plants, transport, warehouses, labour, and bottlenecks.
- Lead times Production, shipment, customs, rerouting, and recovery delays.
Scenario levers
Disruption and mitigation can be tested as explicit operational choices.
- Shocks Port closure, tariff, extreme weather, supplier loss, shortage, or labour disruption.
- Mitigation Dual sourcing, inventory policy, domestic capacity, alternate routes, or public intervention.
- Behaviour Prioritization, rationing, substitution, investment, and customer response.
Outputs
Results can connect operational resilience to economic consequences.
- Operations Shortages, delays, service levels, utilization, and recovery time.
- Economic Output, prices, margins, employment, investment, and trade.
- Risk Critical dependencies, concentration, regional exposure, and resilience benefits.
Use the complexity only when it changes the answer.
ONEMODEL adds value when
- Network topology and inventories determine how a shock propagates.
- Firms can substitute, reroute, ration, or invest in response.
- Recovery timing is as important as the initial loss.
- Operational shocks need to connect to employment, prices, and regional economic effects.
A simpler model is enough when
- Only direct supplier exposure is needed.
- Inventories and substitution do not materially change the result.
- A static input-output multiplier captures the decision adequately.